Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Stock Valuation using Fundamental Analysis (Part 1)


What is a stock/share?
A type of security that signifies ownership in a corporation and represents a claim on part of the corporation's assets and earnings. (Investopedia)

There are 2 types of stocks, common and preferred. For the whole series, I will only be taking common stocks, which are those that are traded on the stock exchange.

I will be writing with relevance to the Singapore market, and a bit on the US market.

For a company to have its shares traded on the stock market, it has to meet the requirements set by SGX to qualify for a listing. For the SGX, there are 2 boards, the SGX mainboard and SGX Sesdaq. The mainboard is for bigger companies and the SesDaq is for relatively smaller companies.

What is Investing??
Investing must be construed a continuing endeavour aimed at the preservation and creation of wealth, bearing in mind all necessary and incumbent risks over a period of time for appropriate returns.

In short, invest with full knowing of what the hell you are doing!!

For stock investing, there are mainly 2 schools of thought, Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis.

For FA, it is more on the reading and interpretation of the company's annual report, to relate the company's prospects in relation to the industry and in turn the industry in relation to the economy as well. This is done to find out the "instrinsic value" of the company in relation to its current market price. And of course, Benjamin Graham, the father of Value Investing, is considered the founder of FA. For more information, read his book "The Intelligent Investor"

For TA, the foundation lies the the principles of the "Dow Theory" and that the stock market moves in trends and cycles. Knowledge on volumes and chart reading (ie Japanese candlesticks) can provide information on future market prices. TA is more concerned with the study of day to day charts and volume compared to FA.

However, FA & TA have both its strengths and weaknesses, and I believe that each other's strengths will complement the shortcomings of their analysis. For me, FA will tell me what stocks to buy and TA will tell me when to buy and sell them.

Here is a table to recap what I have said so far (just in case you don't understand)


I read through my posts to find out that I initially wanted to make a series of posts on my investing experience regarding stocks and unit trusts.

I have decided to start my posts tomorrow, since I have just finished my stock valuation course at SGX centre. Well, I will say that my objectives of understanding how the Singapore market works and how to trade Singapore Stocks are attained. The course is nonetheless fruitful and informative.

The instructor is Mr Robert Tay. He is currently a trading representative for UOB Kay Hian Pte Ltd, was with Philips Securities, DBS Securities, Morgan Grenfell Asia Securities before.
He has over 25 years of teaching experience on fundamental analysis. An indication of how old he is..... He began teaching in SGX since the time when SGX centre was located at the red building or something ( can't remember).

From what I learned from him, I can tell that he has a lot of experience on the stock market and a firm believer of fundamental analysis. Like me, he uses technical analysis only to determine the stock's buy, sell and cut loss price.

If one asks me how I invest in the stock market, I would say that I am 80% fundamental analysis, 20% technical analysis.

I believe that if I had the chance to learn investing from someone, it will definitely be the 2nd richest man in the world, Warren Buffett. Whats the point of investing if one don't want to be the best?? Must learn from the best rite?

Monday, March 26, 2007

I post this in the middle of the night. So why am I not sleeping yet?? hmm.... because I'm studying!!

Damn, is studying boring??

Can anyone just comment why must we (Singaporeans, in particular) study??

Whats the purpose of studying?? Just for that piece of paper that seemed to allow us a secure future??

If this is your reason, I recommend you to read "The World Is Flat" by Thomas Friedman

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Hey, I really gotta apologize that I haven been updating my blog, I take responsibility for it... A good excuse will probably be that I'm rushing out my Operations Management term paper, which is due on coming Friday... (Just finished it, only left editing..)

Behold this PICTURE!!


This is an interesting picture taken yesterday in the carpark at my campus.... Okie, whats SO INTERESTING ABOUT IT!!
Can anyone tell whether it works or not? OR has the credit top-up been activated?? Hmm.....
This is gonna be a joke of the day.
My friend (for easy remembrance, the name is X...) we were walking by the carpark to the library when we saw this grey structure at da side of the carpark. So curiosity got the better of us, and we decided to take a look at what is it....
LOW & BEHOLD ITS A CASHCARD TOP-UP MACHINE!!
Wow!! So X decided to top-up the cashcard..... X made 2 mistakes
1. How to top-up a cashcard?? 1st we gotta press how much we want rite... Then... we are supposed to swap an ATM card for the credit to process....
WHAT X DID: X thought NUS will subsidise the credit for us, Talk about not topping up the 1st time!!
2. After X realises that we gotta use an ATM card 1st, X does it, press the pin, then insert the cashcard. What happens is that the machine said "No Dial Tone".....
WHAT X DID: Initially, I thought its an error, so X did da whole process again, the same thing happened. At this point of time, some people along the way looked at X.... for some reason...
Okie, seems that the machine hasn't got 'opening ceremony' yet!

Saturday, March 17, 2007

THE SECRET OF ATTRACTION HAS WORKED ON ME!!!

Okie, I know all of you will think I'm mad about "The Secret". But if its not the law of attraction, its probably some great power willing me!!

Yesterday, I was intending to go AKLTG to pay my course fees for POE Mod 2, and I also have a letter I need to mail out. So I was wondering if there's any mailbox nearby where I can kill 2 birds with 1 stone...

So as I was driving there, I kept looking out for it but can't find it. Then I was intending to find a space to park by the roadside near AKLTG, then I couldn't find ANY!!! Worse still, I gotta make 1 BIG detour to get to the same place again!!

I was really frustrated, having to make such a long detour, scoulding tons of vulgarities, blaming the slow traffic light, slow cars.... about EVERYTHING (talk about lost control of emotions)

I decided to drive and park my lorry 2 streets across AKLTG, where there's a shop that serve very nice "tisu prata"(will take a pic next time). Guess WHAT?? I can see a mailbox just across the road!! Talk about attraction manz!!

Prata shop at the end !!

Mailbox from my view in lorry!!

Thursday, March 15, 2007

BURNT BY STOCKS
I LOST $700,000 IN 3 MONTHS
Student on winning stock market streak, then he loses dad's life savings
  • OCT LAST YEAR: Just a student in Australia, he makes $80,000 from trading
  • DEC LAST YEAR: Back in S'pore after exams, he role-plays trading & makes an imaginary $100,000 on 1st day & $110,000 on 2nd day
  • DEC-JAN: Convinces dad to give him life savings of $300,000. But he loses it & the $80,000
  • Feb: Girlfriend dumps him. He stops trading for 2 weeks.
  • FEB: He puts money on stocks of 9 companies when market reopens after Chinese New Year

  • EVEN before he graduated from an Australian university, this Singapore engineering student earned $80,000 in a month.
    By Maureen Koh

    12 March 2007

    EVEN before he graduated from an Australian university, this Singapore engineering student earned $80,000 in a month.

    Mr Chan (we are not giving his full name to protect his identity) did not have a job. The 27-year-old was betting on the Singapore stock market, and managed to pick the shares whose prices rocketed in the recent bull run.

    Buoyed by the success, his father was convinced that his only son had a Midas touch. So, the 67-year-old former sailor, who runs a shop selling women's clothes in Chinatown, gave his son $300,000 - his whole life savings - to invest in shares.

    That was a couple of months ago.

    Today, Mr Chan has not only lost all his father's savings, he has incurred another $320,000 in trading losses.
    When the global market went through a sudden meltdown last week, so did his luck and fortune.

    EVERYTHING BOMBED

    In just two days, Mr Chan chalked up a few hundred thousand dollars in losses when The Straits Times Index (STI) dived by 75.9 points on 27 Feb and another 127.87 points (the steepest dive in 20 years) on 28 Feb. He said: 'Everything bombed in just 48 hours. My life, my future... and now, even my parents could lose their home.' In three short months of trading, Mr Chan has lost about $700,000.

    Although the market has regained some of its earlier losses this week, the recovery means little to him. Mr Chan was dabbling in high-risk contra trading, where you buy and sell the same shares within three days, putting up no money and earning the profits when share prices go up. But investors can lose money when the stock market is having a downturn, and they will have to pay the losses to their stockbrokers within days.

    Mr Chan bought heavily into popular counters such as DBS, UOB, Capitaland and even China stocks such as Longcheer Holdings, and hoped to sell them for a gain before the usual deadline. But as the market dipped suddenly and he could not afford to pay and keep all the shares, he had to make up for all the losses he incurred during his trading period. Even after exhausting his previous winnings, his father's savings, and loans from friends, he still owes two of his remisiers more than $200,000.

    To add to his woes, his girlfriend of eight years has also walked out on him, disappointed by how his gambling had cost him dearly. Most of his friends are also avoiding his calls or finding excuses not to meet him. Word has gone around that he is desperate for money because he has already borrowed some $70,000 from 20 of his friends. Mr Chan said: 'No one can blame them for avoiding me. Thankfully, I still have my parents on my side, otherwise I'd probably have gone insane.'

    To help him, his father is prepared to move to a smaller home if needed. While the family is scrambling to raise the money to clear the debt, Mr Chan admitted he had entertained thoughts of filing for bankruptcy. He said: 'I was told if I did that, it'd be tough for me to find a decent job.'

    During the interview with The New Paper on Sunday, Mr Chan became rather agitated and restless when he related his problems. 'Look, it's fine if it's just me, but I've got to think of my parents,' he said. This is a far cry from October last year when he was preparing for his final-year examination in Perth. At a group study session, one of his Singaporean classmates checked on his own trading account and shouted happily when he made a few thousand dollars.

    Mr Chan recalled: 'I was hooked from the minute he started talking about how easy it was to make a profit. ''He encouraged me to do likewise and even suggested that I start off with contra trading since I didn't have much cash.'

    Mr Chan then contacted a cousin, who had an online trading account in Singapore, and asked him to buy some shares he selected. He said: 'I made $23,000 by the end of the first week and my friends started calling me Prince Midas. 'I guess I sort of got carried away when I made another killing of about $30,000. I got bolder and by the time I stopped because of the exams, I was richer by $80,000.'

    Mr Chan returned to Singapore in early December after his examinations and shared the news with his father and 58-year-old mother. They were impressed with his 'windfall'. Still, he insisted that it was not the 'easy cash' but boredom that got him trading again. He said: 'I wanted to take a break for a couple of months before looking for a job, so I was idling during the day when my parents and my girlfriend were at work. 'I was surfing the Internet when I decided to check out the SGX homepage. I randomly picked a few companies and the chart pattern I saw was definitely encouraging.'

    He started to monitor the shares, and role-played as if he had bought heavily into them. When the STI closed on the first day, he had made an imaginary $100,000; on the second day, it was another $110,000 'win'.

    'I was, like, geez! If only I had dealt in real money. Then it occurred to me, maybe this is my calling. If I were good, I could afford to let my parents retire comfortably, have a lavish wedding, and upgrade my Honda Civic.'

    Over dinner that night, Mr Chan shared his plan with his parents and asked them if they would like to pool in their money. He said: 'My father told me, no risk, no gain.' Two days later, the senior Mr Chan transferred $300,000, his whole life savings, to his son's bank account.

    Flushed with cash, Mr Chan was able to open trading accounts with three stockbroking firms. He was so focused on his new 'responsibility' that he 'ate, slept and breathed stocks'.

    From analysing companies' chart patterns to buying stocks after a fall, Mr Chan traded shares of up to six companies at one go. 'I thought I was so smart to diversify... you know what they say, never put all your eggs into one basket,' he said.

    But when he registered the first negative return, Mr Chan 'freaked out'. 'I felt it should not have happened because people were making money.'

    The $28,000 loss was just the beginning of his nightmare. He said: 'I lost control. I could not afford to lose the money. My family does not belong to the high-income strata.' His confidence level dipped further when he kept picking 'the bad eggs'.

    As his stocks dipped further, he started to panic and began to ask his friends for loans. To help him, his girlfriend applied for four bank overdraft facilities and even maxed the limit on five credit cards. She was the only one who knew the true extent of his losses. Mr Chan said: 'I couldn't tell my parents. But my girlfriend was there for me... until she could not take it anymore.

    He covered his face for some seconds and said quietly: 'I've let her down. Really.' In his bid to win his girlfriend and his money back, Mr Chan said he stopped trading for about two weeks, but continued to monitor the charts. Hoping to recover some of his earlier losses, he set his sight on the stocks of nine companies when the market re-opened after the Chinese New Year.

    But Mr Chan ended up suffering $100,000 in paper losses and $220,000 in contra trading. He said: 'I went in for the kill, only to find I could barely stay alive less than five trading days later. My loved ones may now have to 'die together' with me.' He added: 'I don't even know if I have the money to return to the university for my convocation end of this month. I can't bring myself to think of what's next.'

    Taken From New Paper, 12 March


    This article is just a constant reminder to everyone out there..... Its INVEST WITHIN YOUR MEANS!!



    Tuesday, March 13, 2007

    Went to Quality Hotel at Balestier for supper just now.... Guess what? Only for a $6.80 Nett!! Thats right, only $6.80 for a taiwan porridge BUFFET. Well, its available from 10.30pm to 12.30am, for weekdays.

    Take a look at the pictures I have taken,

    Wonderful Buffet for the supper-people!!

    Sorry, too hungry!! Finished it b4 capturing it!



    Look at the spread for the ice-kachang!! Okie, for $6.80, its really worth it!!


    Ice-kachang created!! Except for my poor photography....

    Friday, March 09, 2007

    THE SECRET IS GONE!!

    Alrite, I'm taking down the link to the FULL version of 'The Secret', due to copyright issues. To the people who missed the chance to watch it, msn me at rand_sg@hotmail.com. I think I can cook something up for those people that REALLY want to watch it!!

    A quick recap, 'The Secret' is a documentary on an age-old but POWERFUL concept called the "LAW OF ATTRACTION". This movie is so well-received that it has been featured on "Larry King Live", "Oprah Primetime", "The Ellen DeGeneres Show" and they have talked and raved about it. Besides that, they specially invited those speakers in 'The Secret' to talk more about it. Talk about publicity!

    Please watch the preview, it's absolutely amazing!



    So what is the LAW OF ATTRACTION?

    This law has been around for centuries. The ancient greeks and babylonians have known about this law and have used it for hundreds of years. Almost all major religions knew about this law and stated it one way or another.

    “All that we are is the result of what we have thought.” - Buddhism

    ‘And I say unto you, Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you’.- Luke 11:9

    In 'The Secret', the law states that whatever you are experiencing in your life (e.g. poverty, wealth, bad luck, good luck, opportunities, problems) right now, is the outcome of what you have been attracting by your thoughts.

    Through this movie, people now know that every thought generates brain waves of a particular frequency. In addition, Einstein stated in his Quantum theory, that every thought is a quantum of energy that vibrates at a particular frequency.

    These thoughts that we generate can penetrate through space and time, serving as a 'magnet', that will go out and 'attract' other similarly charged thoughts, thereby bring thoughts to become things.

    In other words, if you think about wealth, success and luck, you will send out thoughts of that positive frequency to the collective consciousness (metaphysical universe) and you will attract them into your life.

    Similarly, if you keeping thinking that you have bad luck or keeping thinking of what you DO NOT WANT (e.g. problems, debt, unreasonable customers, dishonest people), you too will attract these elements into your life because the law of attraction doesn't know whats right or wrong, it doesn't incorporate 'no', 'don't', 'cannot' and other 'no' words.

    For those who have not watched this movie, I urged all to take 2 hours off and watch it( do whatever it takes to watch it!) over the weekend, because this movie is not only INSPIRING but POWERFUL.

    Achieve something bigger in your life that you truly deserve! Go for it!!
    Finally finished all my mid-terms!! Next up are all my projects and term papers, awesome!!! Yeah right....

    Got something to share when I was studying at McDonald's (seems that I'm Loving It!), and involved a 2-years old 'baby' (or toddler.. I don't know). He is darnright cute man!! Too bad I can't have a close up picture of him, if not his parents will be looking at me suspiciously....

    Okay, I can't find a decent picture of a cute toddler on the net.... So please visualise.... U know those chairs in Mac, think about the height of the chair..... Very short right? The baby's height is just a bit taller than that!

    Then, this baby is very funny, in that he attempted very hard to get up to the chair, but couldn't!! His mom sitting in front of him seems to enjoy the moment, so do I!! (Really, the baby is damn adorable till I can't concentrate on my studies)

    After a while, he still persist on and hold on tightly to get up the seat!! So finally his dad came and helped him up :)

    This kinda make me reflect the time when I actually learnt how to give up. I realized that certain habits and actions that we do are reflections of the life we have been living, the people that we modeled after (ie. Parents, friends, celebrities, mentors). As babies, I believed that we didn't really know how to give up, because of the fact that you are reading my blog and able to walk and run are the results that as babies, when we are learning how to walk, we fell down sometimes, but evantually we know how to walk!

    Kinda scary if we learn how to give up easily when learning how to walk is difficult!! We will be crawling all around the place!

    The people we modeled after is very important, because these are the people we will become in the future. As the famous sayings go, "If you want to be an eagle, NEVER flock with the turkeys", "Birds of a feather flock together". Though we are not birds, but this is really true.

    If we were to do a little test.... List down 5 of our closest friends, and ask ourselves these questions. Am I earning around the same income as them? What about my grades? Achievements? Still single?? I believe that the friends we make are reflections of ourselves.

    I'm not saying that I should choose my friends, but spend more time with those I think will help me to succeed in life, not pull me down, because 'friends' is a team that will achieve my dreams with me.

    Be Happy ... Break Free ... (Taken from everydayishappyday, visit it!)

    Monday, March 05, 2007

    WHAT A TYPICAL SINGAPOREAN WILL DO??

    I was studying at McDonalds at Kallang this early morning, when I noticed this incident that caught my eye. A family was ordering Mac and 3 hot fudge sundae ( Ice-cream with Chocolate toppings), and the wife was complaining to the husband that the toppings on 2 sundaes were very little.(In my opinion, its really okay) Then the husband actually egged his wife on to complain to the counter, and they went to complain.

    They made a huge woo-ha about everything, and from the place where I was sitting (at least 25m away from view of the counter), I can actually hear them screaming and shouting.

    What really irks me is that through the whole meal, when the husband and daughter were eating away, the wife kept complaining and saying -ve things like the supervisor is terrible, the management sucks, blaming herself that she don't know English, if not she will win or something... And the more she says, the angrier she gets!! Whats more, she didn't even touch her food!!

    Here is a pic of the family: ( I intentionally blurred it, just in case anyone knows)


    The woman in red on the left with her arms folded (if you can see it), is the wife I'm talking about. At that time, she is complaining aloud about the supervisor, the counter girl that's serving her.... ARGH!!!

    From this incident, I really realized how emotions can take control of a person's actions. She left her food totally untouched, talk about wasting food worth $5!! And the more she says and thinks about it, the angrier she gets!! Whats the point of getting angry over something so trivial to the point that one loses her appetite. Is it really worth it??

    I learnt from Pattern of Excellence that Events + Reaction = Outcome. I can't control the events that are happening to me, but I certainly can control how I react to it. Which in turn will dictate the outcome of how I handle this situation. That's the key!! You see, Events only make up 10% of the outcome, 90% is due to my own reaction to the event. In this case, does that mean I can turn a -ve into a +ve? Certainly, I'm sure everyone knows that for a given situation, different people will handle this problem differently. That's because we react differently!!

    I hope that everyone of my readers will turn -ves into +ve in everything they do. Take this recent market correction for instance, this is actually a very time to go into certain markets because some stocks are selling at a low price!!

    Friday, March 02, 2007

    I need comments and improvements for my blog!!! I have received comments from friends saying my blog looks too wordy... Yep I take responsibility for it, and will commit to put more beautiful pictures on my future posts, I promise!!

    Any other comments?

    I was told to use other blog skins, anyone recommend some? Websites?

    Anything... Or things you want me to blog about... I do my best to post it :)